The 6–3 Bills are set to host the also-6–3 Buccaneers in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, with kickoff from Highmark Stadium set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
This Week 11 matchup between two of the league’s best comes with both teams having suffered losses in Week 10. Tampa Bay lost a tight one to Drake Maye and the AFC’s No. 1 seed Patriots, while the Bills were surprisingly smoked by their division rival Dolphins in Miami.
Needless to say, both teams are relatively desperate to get back in the win column to keep their dreams of contending in the postseason alive.
Sunday marks the third meeting between quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen—both products of the 2018 NFL draft’s first round—who enter this one boasting a 1–1 record against each other.
Here are three bold predictions for the contest.
Sean Tucker found success against the Patriots last Sunday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
With running back Bucky Irving having officially been ruled out of this one by coach Todd Bowles on Friday, the Buccaneers will continue to lean on Rachaad White and Sean Tucker out of the backfield.
Last week against New England, Tucker carried the ball nine times for the Tampa offense and in turn, became the first player this season to rush for 50-plus yards against the Patriots’ stout run defense. His 53 yards on the ground were the second-most he’s run for in his three-year career (136, Week 6, 2024),
The Bills, meanwhile, have struggled mightily against the run to begin 2025. Through nine games, they’ve allowed the third-most rushing yards per game with 147.6, and have also allowed 14 rushing touchdowns—tied for second-most in the NFL.
With Tucker running hot, look for the Buccaneers to keep feeding him the rock—to the tune of 100-plus yards on the ground and a touchdown on Sunday afternoon.
Josh Allen and the Bills had trouble scoring against the Dolphins last Sunday. / Jeff Romance-Imagn Images
While quarterback Josh Allen is among a handful of mega-stars currently playing in the NFL, he hasn’t shined quite as bright to begin 2025.
Through nine games, the reigning league MVP has accounted for 22 touchdowns—but has also thrown for more than 250 yards four times. Additionally, the Bills have lost three of their last five after a 4–0 start, while their offense is scoring just 23 points per game since the beginning of October.
Don’t get me wrong, Buffalo still has plenty of firepower, but against a Buccaneers defense that’s allowing just 22.9 points per game this season—and just 18.3 over the last month—I expect the Bills’ offense to struggle once again. Look for Tampa to stay stout and hold Allen & Co. to 20 points or fewer.
Baker Mayfield is once again balling in 2025. / Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images
On the flipside, despite last week’s loss against New England, Mayfield has still been playing steady and efficient football for the Bucs to begin this season. Through nine games, the once-thought-to-be-bust has thrown for 2,192 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions—despite formerly showing tendencies to be a turnover machine, leading the league in picks twice since being drafted.
His opponents in the Bills, meanwhile, have quietly put together one of the league’s stingier pass defenses—allowing the third fewest passing yards per game (170.2) and passing touchdowns on the year (8).
Still, this feels like a spot where Mayfield can break through—especially given that two of Buffalo’s touchdown passes allowed came from Tua Tagovailoa in last week’s loss. I’m predicting the Bucs (and Mayfield) to find pay dirt three times through the air, and win what turns into a tight, but bounce-back, win for Tampa Bay to get them to 7–3 in 2025.
