Patrick Mahomes has never led the Kansas City Chiefs to anything short of an AFC Championship Game appearance since he assumed the starting quarterback role heading into the 2018 season, but the experts believe that is going to change come January.

The Chiefs are 5-5, losers of two in a row following their defeat on the road against the Denver Broncos in Week 11. Dan Graziano of ESPN predicted on Sunday, November 16 that Kansas City will lose the AFC West Division battle for the first time in a decade, while also asserting that the Chiefs face an uphill battle to even make the playoffs after falling to the No. 9 seed in the AFC following their loss in Denver. In the current NFL format, seven teams from each conference earn playoff berths.

“The Chiefs have a ton of work to do just to get a wild-card spot,” Graziano wrote. “Sunday’s result makes the math incredibly daunting in terms of extending their division title streak to an even decade. The Chiefs are also 1.5 games behind the second-place [Los Angeles] Chargers in the AFC West and lost to them in Week 1, so they’d be behind Los Angeles in the head-to-head tiebreaker, too (though they do play both the Chargers and the Broncos one more time).”

GettyQuarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City faces another tough test next week after consecutive losses to the Buffalo Bills and Broncos, with a bye week sandwiched between those defeats.

The Indianapolis Colts (8-2) are tied for the second-best record in the league and will visit Arrowhead Stadium in Week 12. The Chiefs are three-point favorites to win the contest, though Indianapolis is coming off a bye week and will have both seven days of extra rest and preparation to get ready for the reigning AFC champions.

Kansas City has a flawed roster, much like last season, but Mahomes had an uncharacteristically poor game against the elite Broncos defense over the weekend, completing 29-of-45 pass attempts for 276 yards, one TD and one INT along with three sacks.

Mahomes threw a costly interception just outside of the red zone in the third quarter that likely cost the Chiefs a field goal in a game they ended up losing by three points, then led his offense to two consecutive three-and-out possessions late in the fourth quarter, both of which Denver followed with field-goal drives that led to 22-19 Broncos’ win.

GettyQuarterback Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs.

Mahomes blamed himself following the game, talking about a lack of consistency and putting the onus for that deficiency on his shoulders.

“I think we’re really talented and we’ve got a lot of great players, but it’s about being more consistent,” Mahomes said. “I think that starts with me.”

“There’s times where I’m firing and we’re moving the ball down the field at ease,” he continued. “But there’s times where we go in spurts where I miss a throw or a protection call.”

Oddsmakers will likely favor Kansas City in the majority of its games down the stretch, though that doesn’t guarantee any outcomes. The Chiefs travel to take on the Dallas Cowboys following next week’s game against the Colts before a two-game home stand against the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers.

Kansas City then travels to Tennessee to take on the Titans before hosting the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Day. The Chiefs finish the year with a road showdown against the 2-8 Las Vegas Raiders.