With his 36th birthday on the horizon, expectations are tempered for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.
After a couple of down seasons, the bar is being set high for the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offense. Better health at the receiver spot and better talent at left tackle can largely be credited for that.
Not many are anticipating a true return to form for one particular player, though. Coming off the worst effort of his career in 2024-25, tight end Travis Kelce is attempting to bounce back. Be cautious of buying that stock, per one fantasy football analyst.
In a July 15 story for Pro Football Focus, Jonathon Macri listed four players to avoid at their current average draft position. Kelce was one of two Chiefs to make the cut, joining wideout Xavier Worthy.
A couple of factors contributed to the inclusion of Kelce. Both were dubbed “more concerning” reasons to be hesitant or “fade” him.
According to Macri, the days of Kelce carrying your fantasy lineup are over.
“Kelce suffered a clear drop-off in his metrics last season, which, like with [Tyreek] Hill, isn’t unexpected for a player who will turn 36 years old this season,” Macri wrote. “Kelce finished 2024 with a career-low 71.7 PFF grade in addition to more career lows in receiving grade (72.2), yards per route run (1.49) and yards per reception (9.1). He also came in with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since his rookie season, which includes the playoffs, where he played an additional three games last year.”
It’s hard to disagree with Macri’s reasoning. Despite hauling in four more passes in 2024 than 2023, Kelce’s efficiency fell again. A lot of that is attributed to athletic decline. The eye test reflected a player who was in his 12th season. The data backed it up, too, as Kelce’s yards after catch per reception fell all the way down to 3.5. It was 6.1 in 2021, 5.9 in 2022 and 5.0 in 2023.
Improved health and better weapons around him (more on that in a moment) could help Kelce. At this point, it’s about staying fresh. The Chiefs leaned on him more last season, playing him 84% of offensive snaps. In the three seasons prior, that figure declined. Look to see a return to that trend in 2025.
